# The Imperative of Becoming a Multi-Planetary Species
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Chapter 1: The Fermi Paradox
The quest to find other worlds beyond our own has intensified since the launch of the Kepler space telescope in 2009. This remarkable instrument, sent into orbit aboard a ULA Delta II heavy rocket, focused on a small segment of the sky, diligently observing 156,000 stars for signs of planets. Over its operational lifespan, Kepler identified at least 2,662 exoplanets, with further analysis still underway.
Kepler's methodology involved detecting planets that passed in front of their stars, momentarily dimming their brightness. This led to the conclusion that the Milky Way likely contains more planets than stars, with estimates suggesting at least 100 billion stars and potentially an equal number of planets.
Given that complex life thrives on Earth, it stands to reason that similar forms of life might exist elsewhere in the universe. However, we are left pondering why we haven't encountered any signals from the estimated 30,000 habitable planets located within a thousand light-years of our home. This conundrum is known as the Fermi Paradox.
There exists a notable contradiction between the abundance of potentially habitable worlds and the lack of signals from intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations.
Numerous theories have been proposed to explain this paradox. One suggestion is that intelligent life is far more uncommon than we assume. Another possibility is that the conditions necessary for habitability extend beyond simply having liquid water. The most unsettling explanation posits that while intelligent life does emerge, many civilizations self-destruct before achieving the technological capability to communicate with us.
Section 1.1: The Great Filter Hypothesis
The Great Filter hypothesis offers a chilling perspective: intelligent civilizations may often extinguish themselves before they can reach the stars. Our own history is dotted with near-catastrophic events, making it plausible that similar civilizations elsewhere face self-destruction before transmitting meaningful signals into space.
The Great Filter represents a critical barrier that intelligent species must traverse to achieve lasting survival. The unsettling truth is that we do not know if this filter lies ahead or behind us.
Understanding the challenges we face, it seems evident that humanity has not yet cleared this hurdle.
Subsection 1.1.1: The Toba Catastrophe
Approximately 75,000 years ago, as humans ventured out of Africa, a supervolcano erupted near present-day Lake Toba in Indonesia, releasing 2,800 cubic kilometers of material into the atmosphere. This cataclysmic event is believed to have caused a significant reduction in the human population, possibly down to just a few thousand individuals, drastically limiting genetic diversity.
While this theory remains controversial, it illustrates that Earth has endured at least five major extinction events and is currently undergoing its sixth.
Section 1.2: The Doomsday Argument
The Holocene epoch, characterized by a stable climate that fostered the rise of mammals and complex intelligence, may have ended. We have entered the Anthropocene, a period marked by human activities that profoundly impact all life on the planet.
Are the changes we make to our planet irrevocably harming its habitability? Is this the Great Filter approaching us? Have other extraterrestrial civilizations faced similar declines due to resource depletion or climate change?
The doomsday argument, as articulated by philosopher Nick Bostrom, involves imagining two urns: one containing 10 ping-pong balls and another containing 1,000. If asked to identify the urn with 10 balls, you would have no basis for preference. However, if you draw an 8 from one urn, you could reasonably conclude it likely contains just 10 balls.
In a similar vein, if humanity were to face extinction within the next century, the total number of humans that would have ever lived would amount to around 200 billion. In contrast, if we were to survive and colonize the galaxy, the number could soar into the trillions. If your birth rank is around 90 billion, it indicates that the "doom soon" scenario is much more plausible.
Chapter 2: Addressing Modern Existential Threats
Some people find the doomsday argument persuasive, while others do not. Nonetheless, the challenge of dismissing this hypothesis through rational discourse is significant.
Even if "doom soon" seems unlikely, it is crucial to comprehend the risks humanity faces and implement measures to enhance our long-term survival prospects.
Anthropogenic risks include climate change, superintelligent AI, nuclear conflict, rogue biotechnology, and depletion of natural resources. Non-anthropogenic risks might involve volcanic eruptions, asteroid strikes, nearby supernovae, or global pandemics.
Despite the challenges, there are reasons for hope. Global initiatives are underway to bolster resilience and mitigate some of the gravest risks threatening our species.
In 2020, the world once again grappled with a global pandemic, reminiscent of the 1918 Spanish Flu. Experts had long anticipated such an event. However, global health organizations require consistent funding and staffing, even in periods of low perceived risk, to effectively respond to pandemics.
Many institutions are dedicated to researching existential risks and raising public awareness. Notable examples include the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge, the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford, and the Future of Life Institute in Boston.
Countermeasures & Backups
Various strategic initiatives are already in place to mitigate risks to humanity. For instance, the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, situated on a remote Arctic archipelago, serves as a biorepository for seeds from around the globe, ensuring their preservation in case of crises.
Similarly, the GitHub Arctic Code Vault stores open-source software deep beneath Arctic permafrost, safeguarding it for future generations. Inspired by Asimov's Foundation series, the Arch Mission Foundation is creating backups of human knowledge in space, utilizing durable media designed to withstand the test of time.
NASA has also established the Planetary Defense Coordination Office to address the threat of civilization-ending asteroid impacts, significantly increasing its budget and resources over the past decade.
Becoming a Multi-Planet Species
Given the complexity and scale of catastrophic risks, they are often underestimated or ignored, leading to a tendency towards short-term thinking.
The tumultuous events of 2020, including the pandemic, civil unrest, and climate-related disasters, heightened awareness of humanity's vulnerability.
In light of current terrestrial challenges, discussions about colonizing Mars may seem out of touch. However, there is a rational connection between addressing existential risks and seeking alternate planets for habitation.
"I firmly believe we should begin exploring alternative planets for possible settlement." — Stephen Hawking, 2017
Setting ambitious goals can yield significant benefits. The Ansari XPrize competition, announced in 1996, aimed to incentivize private spaceflight and ultimately led to substantial technological advancements and new ventures. Today, SpaceX has made traveling to space increasingly routine.
Expanding humanity's presence beyond Earth could similarly catalyze innovation, yielding technologies that enhance life on our planet and bolster our resilience.
In conclusion, our species faces a pivotal moment. We might reach a total of 200 billion humans and no more, or we could overcome our destructive tendencies, heal our planet, and venture into the cosmos. The choice lies before us: a future resembling Mad Max or Star Trek. This potential is our cosmic inheritance, motivating us to create a better world—or worlds.
The first video, "Andrew Critch - Existential Risk: An Introduction," provides an overview of existential risks and their implications for humanity's future.
The second video, "Sir Martin Rees on the Future: Prospects for Humanity," discusses the potential trajectories of human civilization and our place in the universe.