The Surge in Launch Capacity

Chinese commercial launch providers are projected to complete over 20 missions this year, marking more than a twofold increase compared to 2022. This remarkable rise in launch capability underscores the rapid evolution of the Chinese space sector. The advancement of small satellite constellations is likely to gain traction, potentially impacting international space traffic management.

Last year, China set a national record with 64 launches, of which 54 were executed by the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC). Expace, Landspace, iSpace, and Galactic Energy contributed the remaining ten, including two unsuccessful attempts. CASC has announced its goal to surpass 60 launches this year, while Galactic Energy plans to execute 8 to 10 missions utilizing the Ceres-1 light-lift solid rocket. Notably, Galactic Energy aims to launch from a mobile sea platform in the Yellow Sea, utilizing infrastructure established in Haiyang, Shandong province.

Innovative Launch Vehicles

The Ceres-1 rocket features a diameter of 1.4 meters and a length of approximately 20 meters, weighing about 33 tons at launch. It can deliver 400 kg to low Earth orbit (LEO) or 300 kg to a sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) at an altitude of 500 kilometers. The company’s Pallas-1 reusable launcher, capable of transporting 5,000 kg to LEO and 3,000 kg to 700-km SSO, is slated for its test launch in 2024.

In the near term, Space Pioneer (Beijing Tianbing Technology Co., Ltd.) is on track to become the first Chinese private company to achieve orbit with a liquid-fueled vehicle. The Tianlong-2 rocket, powered by kerosene and liquid oxygen, is projected to launch from Jiuquan in Q1.

Challenges and Innovations

Expace, which operates Kuaizhou solid rockets for the state-owned defense giant CASIC, had previously aimed to develop a rocket featuring HCP liquid engines and a next-generation green propellant. However, there have been no recent updates on this initiative. Expace is planning to launch seven Kuaizhou-1A and Kuaizhou-11 rockets in the upcoming year, having successfully recovered both models from previous failures.

Landspace, an industry pioneer, made history with the first orbital launch attempt of a methane-powered rocket in December, despite encountering challenges with the second stage's vernier engines, leading to the loss of the payload. The company is currently testing the second Zhuque-2 rocket, which will use an upgraded Tianque engine without vernier engines, allowing for a quicker return to the launch pad depending on the investigation outcomes.

iSpace, which made headlines as the first private Chinese launch provider to successfully reach orbit in 2019, faced three consecutive failures. However, they are expected to test their reusable methalox Hyperbola-2 rocket's vertical takeoff and landing capabilities this year, alongside the Hyperbola-1 solid rocket.

Emerging Players and Future Prospects

Orienspace, a newcomer in the launch market, plans to conduct its inaugural mission using a mobile sea platform in the latter half of 2023. Their Gravity-1 solid rocket boasts the largest payload capacity for an all-solid launch vehicle at 6.5 metric tons to LEO. The company aims to conduct ten Gravity-1 flights throughout 2024 and 2025, with further plans for new launchers.

Rocket Pi, another entrant, could launch their Darwin-1 methalox vehicle this year, although the timeline remains uncertain. CAS Space, a spinoff of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is preparing for three launches of the PR-1 (Lijian-1) solid rockets, following a successful mission last July. Additionally, China Rocket, a CASC subsidiary, will conduct more Jielong-3 launches this year after their sea launch debut in 2022.

Market Opportunities and Global Implications

According to Ian Christensen, director of private sector programs at the Secure World Foundation, the primary market for these Chinese commercial launchers may be domestic private aerospace constellations, including GalaxySpace and Changguang Satellite’s Jilin-1 constellation. A successful launch schedule for 2023 could facilitate the deployment of Chinese small satellite constellations, particularly within the country.

However, this growth could have international repercussions, especially concerning space traffic management. An uptick in operators and satellites in the LEO environment may necessitate improved data sharing and coordination channels between the US and China.

Historical Context and Future Outlook

The Chinese commercial space industry emerged in 2014, allowing private investment in certain segments of the space sector. This shift was largely inspired by developments in the United States, with companies like SpaceX leading the way. Recent advancements signify a thrilling new chapter in China’s space ambitions, with private enterprises at the forefront of innovation.

Since the sector's opening to private investment, numerous space-related companies have emerged in China, engaging in activities ranging from launch services to satellite manufacturing and ground operations. This has sparked a wave of innovation and technological progress across the nation’s space industry.

To nurture the growth of this commercial sector, the Chinese government has implemented various supportive measures and policies. Additionally, the military-civil fusion strategy promotes technology transfer among approved entities, fostering a favorable environment for companies to prosper. These initiatives demonstrate the government's commitment to cultivating a robust commercial space sector and driving innovation.