It hardly ever rains in Southern California—perhaps only every other Tuesday in January during odd years.

Admittedly, I'm a bit delayed in sharing this, as I recently returned from a two-week road trip to the Great Plains. My goal? To assess the drought conditions there and enjoy some respite—it's a fantastic area for that, especially since few people visit!

While our focus is currently on Southern California, let’s take a moment to review the drought situation in other regions:

More than half of Southern California remains at high risk. Although the atmospheric river that impacted the Pacific Northwest in the spring has led to improvements in some northern areas, conditions in the western U.S. are as dire as—or worse than—last year, particularly in Texas, which was previously drought-free.

Drought is a global issue. For instance, Iraq's Lake Sawa has completely dried up. Once nourished by rich underground aquifers, this lake is now a victim of rampant illegal well drilling, which has diminished the water flow from the Euphrates River.

In Central Chile, the primary water supply for Valparaiso, a city with a population of one million, is nearly depleted. Similar to California and the Mediterranean region, this area has faced declining rainfall, reduced snowpack from the Andes, and rising temperatures. Consequently, the Penuelas reservoir is almost empty, and elevated ocean temperatures are redirecting Pacific storms away from Chile.

In Africa, especially around the horn, reports indicate severe hunger and starvation in regions that have not experienced rain for years—a dire situation that is beginning to impact our food supply as well.

The Imperial Valley in California is often referred to as America's salad bowl due to its vast vegetable production. Consider the significant water requirements for growing various crops:

• Almonds: 23 gallons per ounce
• Cherries: 12.2 gallons per ounce
• Asparagus: 20.3 gallons per ounce
• Tomatoes: 26 gallons per pound
• Eggplant: 43 gallons per pound
• Wine: 872 gallons per gallon
• Potatoes: 34 gallons per pound
• Rice: 299 gallons per pound of processed rice
• Oranges: 67 gallons per pound
• Peaches: 109 gallons per pound
• Avocados: 141 gallons per pound

Agriculture accounts for approximately 75–80% of California's water use. The Central Valley, which once boasted a robust aquifer, has faced depletion due to extensive private well usage, leading to land subsidence—a concerning trend for the future.

The Colorado River is vital in this equation. Living in New Mexico, I’ve witnessed that the area experiencing extreme drought is nearly as expansive as California. When the seasonal monsoon rains began on June 17, there was a collective sigh of relief; it had been three long months since we’d seen rain.

Discussions about the megadrought in the West cannot overlook the Colorado River, which supplies water to seven states and Mexico. California is the largest consumer, especially in the southern region.

The lower Colorado River basin comprises California, Nevada, and Arizona, which collectively receive around nine million acre-feet of water annually. To maintain essential reservoir levels (Lake Powell and Lake Mead), cuts of two to four million acre-feet are necessary. States are currently negotiating who will absorb these reductions.

The deadline for states to present their needs is mid-August. If no agreement is reached, the federal government may impose cuts, which no state desires.

“We have urgent needs to act now. We need to be taking action in all states, in all sectors, and in all available ways.” ~ Tanya Trujillo, Interior Department assistant secretary for water and science

The State Water Project is expected to deliver only five percent of what Los Angeles received last year, making the Colorado River its most crucial water source. Given this, conservation efforts are more critical than ever. Arizona has already relinquished a significant portion of its water allocation to California for the Central Arizona Project (CAP), and cuts to water for Pinal County farmers have begun. Will Tucson be next?

These are indeed unsettling times.

The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) relies primarily on the Colorado River for its water supply. The second source is the State Water Project (SWP), which channels water from northern and central California rivers, primarily sourced from Sierra Nevada runoff.

Around 70% of this water is allocated for commercial use, while the Bay Area also benefits from the SWP. The remaining thirty percent supports irrigation in the San Joaquin Valley.

The Los Angeles aqueduct, originating from the Eastern Sierra Nevada, has devastated farming in the Owens Valley and led to the desiccation of Mono Lake. Due to the ecological impact on these lakes, a substantial portion of the water now serves ecological maintenance.

San Diego has seen demand drastically surpass local supply, currently importing 85–90% of its water from the Colorado River and SWP, with 20% sourced from rapidly depleting groundwater.

Lake Oroville, California's largest reservoir, supplies water to roughly 27 million people, primarily in northern California, with Shasta Lake being critical for the Central Valley. Recently, federal authorities announced that no water would be allocated for agricultural use from these reservoirs, which means cities can expect only about 25% of their historical water supply.

There are serious concerns that rising temperatures in northern California’s rivers could devastate the Chinook salmon population. Farmers may have to choose between leaving fields fallow or relying on dwindling groundwater resources.

Writing about the megadrought often feels like doomsaying.

The Colorado River has given everything it has; its capacity is exhausted. It has sustained the water and energy needs of over 40 million people, and it's weary. The population reliant on this river has surged since 1950.

The Colorado River Compact, established in 1922 and ratified in 1944, allocated water among the states during a time of much higher rainfall, which was considered the norm. Since then, precipitation and snowfall have drastically decreased, while average temperatures have risen. Climate change, first recognized by scientists in the 1950s, has led to more frequent droughts in the latter half of the twentieth century.

This ongoing drought has persisted for 23 years, evolving into what is now referred to as the “Millennium Drought.” With a drastic reduction in Colorado River flow and an increasing population, significant sacrifices must be made. This is clearly not sustainable.

The Upper Basin states have inferred that the Lower Basin should shoulder the brunt of future cuts. Once the river reaches Yuma, it also reaches the last dam, which supplies water to Arizona and the Imperial Valley. If farmers are asked to fallow their fields, they will likely seek compensation from state or federal authorities.

Upcoming cuts are in addition to existing reductions and will remain in effect for years.

“They would have to remain in place either until we know the drought has definitely ended and the reservoirs have recovered, or even greater cuts will be required because of increasing aridification.” ~ Kevin Wheeler, Oxford University engineer and senior research associate

When the drought has definitively ended. When the reservoirs have recovered. These are not conditions we can expect to see in our lifetimes.

Let’s keep our firefighters and emergency responders safe as they tackle the Oak Fire and the many other blazes currently raging.

Next, we’ll return to California for a final overview, but first, I’ll guide you to the heart of America’s breadbasket—the Great Plains. With global food supplies dwindling, they are ill-prepared for the impending shortfall.

Sources include: - Reuters - Fort Worth Star-Telegram - Water Education Foundation, California Department of Water Resources - Smithsonian Magazine - The Huffington Post - The United States Census Bureau - The Arizona Republic - Ventura County Star - The Guardian

For further reading on the megadrought, refer to these articles:

• California’s Screamin’ (For Water)

  • The rivers and lakes are stressed to the max

  medium.com

• 6 Of The Most Unsustainable Cities, Analyzed

  • Turn off the Water When You’re Brushing Your Teeth!

  medium.com

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