A High-Velocity Crash

In 2009, two communication satellites collided at a staggering speed of 26,000 mph.

One satellite was operational, while the other, a Russian military satellite, had lost guidance and ceased functioning in 1995.

This incident occurred 490 miles above Siberia, scattering debris across the globe.

This crash, along with a Chinese anti-satellite missile test from 2007, contributes to 33% of the current space debris.

Size Matters: From Buses to Peas

In 2012, communication was unexpectedly lost with the European Space Agency's environmental satellite, Envisat 8, which is roughly the size of a double-decker bus.

Though it ranks as the largest piece of inactive space debris, there are countless smaller fragments. The ESA estimates around 128 million pieces of debris ranging from 1mm to 1cm.

The sheer volume and variety of debris complicate cleanup efforts.

If we hope to avoid being stuck on Earth, addressing this issue promptly is crucial.

The Kessler Scenario

In 1978, NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler warned of a dire possibility.

He suggested that if the density of objects in low Earth orbit increases too much, a single collision could trigger a catastrophic chain reaction, effectively trapping humanity on our planet.

Objects in space travel at incomprehensible speeds, possessing immense kinetic energy. When they collide, they fragment into even more debris.

Should this debris field become too dense, launching any new missions could become perilous due to the high risk of collision.

A Call for Responsibility

As someone from Alaska, I was raised with the principle of leaving a campsite cleaner than I found it.

This principle stems from the reality that many neglect to clean up after themselves.

This indifference is evident when observing how Chinese authorities respond when their booster rockets fall back to Earth. Will they harm anyone? Will they release toxic substances? The general attitude is one of apathy.

For decades, we have neglected our responsibilities in space. However, with the commercial boom in space exploration, there is a newfound urgency to address space debris.

Despite some positive developments, such as a Japanese company testing a cleanup satellite, the challenge remains daunting.

The requirements for removing Envisat differ significantly from those needed to clear out tiny debris.

Addressing the diverse array of space junk would be a formidable challenge on Earth, but in the harsh environment of space—where costs are astronomical and debris travels at high speeds—it's an immense undertaking.

Commercial Ventures in Space

The commercialization of space is rapidly advancing. For instance, Morgan Stanley highlights investment opportunities in this sector.

The Space Force is expanding its capabilities to support both scientific and commercial missions, with the military transferring some satellites to the agency.

Countries like China, Russia, and India are heavily investing in their space programs.

Jeff Bezos is preparing to send his first tourists into orbit, driven by his vision of creating a space-faring civilization living on massive arks between Earth and the Moon.

Yet, while Bezos recognizes the debris issue, he is significantly contributing to it.

The Kuiper Constellation Initiative

Amazon plans to deploy a constellation of 3,236 satellites to provide low-latency broadband access to millions lacking basic internet connectivity.

Essentially, this initiative aims to bridge the digital divide while creating a new customer base for AWS.

While profit motives are evident, I believe that both the Kuiper Mega-Constellation and the concept of space arks hold potential for future survival.

However, the Kuiper project also heightens the risk of triggering the cascading collisions theorized by Kessler.

Internal Amazon estimates indicate a 6% uptick in collision risk.

John Crassidis, an expert in orbital debris, emphasizes that this is a significant increase in danger.

“At a 6% chance of collision, astronauts might have to use an escape hatch. Even at far lower probabilities, evasive maneuvers would be necessary.”

Challenges in Finding Solutions

As is often the case, the simplest solutions are the hardest to implement.

The most effective way to prevent becoming trapped on Earth is to halt all launches into space. However, this would severely stifle innovation and profits.

The potential financial gains from space exploration are too enticing for us to abandon.

Revisiting Historical Patterns

We are witnessing a trend where wealthy nations invest significant capital and take human risks to explore and exploit resources in a newly discovered frontier.

Does that sound familiar? We must strive to avoid repeating the errors of our past in colonizing the New World.

Ultimately, venturing into space is a prudent long-term strategy.

I remain optimistic that we can steer clear of Kessler Syndrome and initiate space cleanup efforts.

One thing is abundantly clear.

Key Takeaways

If you have extra funds to invest in space-related ventures, it seems like a wise long-term choice.

However, most of us will likely be excluded from the decision-making processes regarding space activities.

The primary task for us on Earth is to hold accountable every organization that contributes to the growing issue of space debris.

Space isn’t like a roadside in Detroit; you can't abandon your discarded equipment.

We must call out businesses and government entities that leave their rockets, satellites, or other debris in orbit.

If you launch it into space, it’s your responsibility to clean it up once it’s defunct.

Let’s name and shame those responsible. We cannot allow them to evade accountability, as the only forces that deter capitalists from offloading costs are public shame and negative publicity.

EDIT: A small piece of space debris recently struck and damaged the International Space Station. A robotic arm, known as the Canadarm2, sustained damage but remains operational. This incident was first reported on May 12th.

Further Reading

Space junk removal progress: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/space-junk-removal-is-not-going-smoothly/

Understanding Kessler Syndrome: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

Jeff Bezos and his vision: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/11/what-jeff-bezos-wants/598363/

Iridium 33 Collision details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_satellite_collision

Space launch calendar: https://www.space.com/32286-space-calendar.html

ESA's space debris statistics: https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers

Global space agency efforts: https://interestingengineering.com/space-programs-around-the-world

Kuiper project and AWS: https://www.geekwire.com/2020/project-kuiper-plus-aws-amazons-cloud-satellite-internet-ventures-mesh/

Amazon's collision risk report to FCC: https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/aerospace/satellites/amazon-reports-collision-risk-for-its-megaconstellation-of-kuiper-internet-satellites

Morgan Stanley on space investments: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space