The Surprising and Frightening Implications of AI by 2030
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The Dawn of a New AI Era
Last week, while watching “Top Gun: Maverick,” one particular scene left me feeling a bit uneasy. It was when Tom Cruise’s character, Lt. Pete ‘Maverick,’ interacts with Val Kilmer’s fiery rival, ‘Iceman.’ Knowing that Kilmer has throat cancer in real life, I was struck by how he was able to speak clearly in the film. This raises the question: how was this achieved? The answer is artificial intelligence.
The voice we hear in the movie is a digitally crafted simulation of what Kilmer's voice might sound like if he were healthy. This astonishing yet alarming achievement in technology led me to reflect on the intriguing projects that AI researchers are currently pursuing. One of the most talked-about startups is Stability AI, which is poised to be a major player in the next five years.
Stability AI is revolutionizing access to artificial intelligence by offering its software as open source and free of charge. Since its release in August, over 200,000 users have downloaded their code, and it's clear that what they, along with the broader AI community, are developing is both thrilling and somewhat unsettling. Here’s a glimpse into what’s on the horizon.
The Intelligent Internet
“Intelligence is about to be pushed out to the edge. So every person, country, and culture has their own constantly updated models, so you’ll have your own model of all your knowledge across modalities. And you can run it on your local hardware without access to the internet.”
— Emad Mostaque, Founder of Stability AI
According to Mostaque, modern AI and machine learning will effortlessly create credible text on any topic, particularly in short form. This also extends to producing podcasts that mimic the voices of both living and deceased celebrities. The recent acquisition of Twitter made me realize how widespread this phenomenon has become.
In fact, approximately one-third of Twitter's content is generated by bots. When we consider this in the context of the entire internet, a significant amount of the information we encounter daily is already AI-generated. The question of what is real and what is AI-generated is increasingly relevant.
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Predicting Sports Outcomes with AI
Stability AI has received the largest collection of boxing media and motion capture data from the families of two legendary fighters. They aim to use this information to create hypothetical boxing matches under various conditions. Imagine the possibilities:
- Ali vs. Tyson
- Mayweather vs. Frazier
- Jake Paul vs. Joe Glass
In the future, AI may even be able to analyze real-time data to accurately predict outcomes of live sports events, which could have major implications for gambling.
Misinformation Warfare
AI's role in warfare has evolved, especially in the realm of information warfare. Much of the misinformation disseminated by Russia—and even the misinformation we generate against other countries—is created using AI. The side that develops the most effective AI models will emerge victorious in these conflicts.
The Transformation of Music Consumption
Stability AI is creating models capable of generating music that mimics the style of your favorite artists, potentially leading to an endless supply of new music from both living and deceased musicians. When this program is launched, it could lead to a new version of Spotify that continuously regenerates music over time. The ethical and legal ramifications of this development are still unknown, but it’s likely that lawsuits will follow.
AI-Enhanced Companionship
The first AI sex robot, Harmony, has made its debut:
Unlike traditional dolls, Harmony offers multiple personalities and can engage in meaningful conversations. Some researchers consider AI in this context an “existential risk,” as it may contribute to declining human relationships and a rise in reliance on virtual companions. In Japan, for instance, brothels featuring sex robots have started to emerge.
The Future of Education
Stability AI aims to replace traditional PowerPoint presentations. Instead of manually creating slides, users could simply specify the desired number, tone, language, and types of images, allowing the AI to generate everything automatically. There are already numerous AI tools available that can write papers, create original artwork, and conduct research, suggesting that our daily activities may soon be heavily influenced by AI.
Authority Hashes and Authenticity
Authority hashes are digital signatures designed to verify the authenticity of information. These hashes will be linked to AI-generated content to distinguish it from human-created works, helping to combat deepfakes and misinformation. This could prevent an Orwellian future where we lose appreciation for human-created art.
The Changing Landscape of Employment
Consider how many people you know who spend their workdays merely attending Zoom meetings. A large portion of online jobs is focused on converting unstructured data into structured formats, affecting various professions from writers to scientists. As a result, AI is expected to replace not only low-skilled positions but also many high-skilled jobs. This reality raises questions about the necessity of universal basic income in the future.
The Exponential Age
Many investors, including Raoul Pal of Real Vision Finance, believe we are entering an “Exponential Age,” where rapid technological growth will disrupt our understanding of work and the economy.
“Technological growth is going exponential and it is not going to stop regardless of what the central banks are doing or inflation is doing. It’s irrelevant when the speed of technological adoption is so rapid, and so truly extraordinary and profound.”
— Raoul Pal, Founder of Real Vision Finance
Final Thoughts
AI holds the potential to usher in an era of abundance and prosperity. However, it also poses significant risks, much like the potential consequences of nuclear weapons. As we navigate this new landscape, the hope is that AI ultimately benefits humanity. If things go awry, perhaps relocating to Mars would be a viable option, allowing AI to manage Earth.
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